Over the last year, we have heard promises from many countries about reaching net zero around the middle of this century. This means that 70% of global GDP is now covered by net zero promises, compared to around 30% a year ago. It’s great to have these promises, but the challenge is working out how to deliver them and how to get the rest of the world onboard too.
Halving GHG emissions by 2030 is seen as an important milestone in the journey towards net zero. Realistic plans for doing this need to be worked out, processes put in place to make sure plans are delivered and the funding has to be made available, especially for developing countries and new technologies. Everyone has to get onboard, including business, finance, cities and civil society. COP26 is about agreeing how all that will happen.
So how will we know if COP26 is a success? Well, it depends on who you ask.
COP PRESIDENCY EXPECTATIONS
The UK and Italian governments are chairing COP26. They have been working towards the following goals and will be judged on whether these have been achieved.
Find more information on each of those further down this page. The spotlight will also be on:
Halving GHG emissions by 2030 is seen as an important milestone in the journey towards net zero. Realistic plans for doing this need to be worked out, processes put in place to make sure plans are delivered and the funding has to be made available, especially for developing countries and new technologies. Everyone has to get onboard, including business, finance, cities and civil society. COP26 is about agreeing how all that will happen.
So how will we know if COP26 is a success? Well, it depends on who you ask.
COP PRESIDENCY EXPECTATIONS
The UK and Italian governments are chairing COP26. They have been working towards the following goals and will be judged on whether these have been achieved.
- More ambitious climate action
- Progress on adaptation
- Agreement on climate finance
- Agreement on the Paris rule book
- The linking of climate action with biodiversity protection
Find more information on each of those further down this page. The spotlight will also be on:
- Inclusion – will there be sufficient representation of vulnerable groups?
- Initiatives to speed up climate action
- Leadership – from developed countries, especially the UK
- New business reporting systems - these massive changes (including toxonomies, disclosure and climate risk management) will be discussed in detail at the SIDE EVENTS
- The German Government – as it takes over the chair of G7 in 2022
WHAT DO OTHERS EXPECT?
Many of the environmental NGOs would like to see COP26 agree more ambitious action. Find out what they have been asking for.
The Glasgow Action Plan - 105 NGOs and businesses are asking for action that goes further and faster than the ambitions of the UK and Italian governments
The Green Alliance – set four tests for a successful Glasgow climate summit on Leadership, Credibility, Climate Justice and Nature
Climate Change News – a roundup of expectations from different groups
Energy and Climate Intelligence Unit - read about the Key Summit Asks and see a helpful infographic explaining COP26
Greta Thunberg - says things will "remain the same" following the conference, although she expects "many nice speeches"
Many of the environmental NGOs would like to see COP26 agree more ambitious action. Find out what they have been asking for.
The Glasgow Action Plan - 105 NGOs and businesses are asking for action that goes further and faster than the ambitions of the UK and Italian governments
The Green Alliance – set four tests for a successful Glasgow climate summit on Leadership, Credibility, Climate Justice and Nature
Climate Change News – a roundup of expectations from different groups
Energy and Climate Intelligence Unit - read about the Key Summit Asks and see a helpful infographic explaining COP26
Greta Thunberg - says things will "remain the same" following the conference, although she expects "many nice speeches"
MORE AMBITIOUS CLIMATE ACTION
• Updated NDCs which put all countries on a pathway to 1.5 degrees. These should include the following commitments:
o GHG reduction targets for 2030
o immediately phasing out coal and (in the longer term) other fossil fuels from energy generation
o switching to zero emission vehicles
o protecting forests and making agriculture more sustainable
• Agreement to harmonise the timing of NDC renewals – it is expected to be harmonised to 5 yearly or 10 yearly
• Agreement to reach net zero as soon as possible - 145 countries have agreed a net zero target or are discussing one
• Agreement on a common, robust approach to measuring GHG reductions
• Measures to reduce methane emissions
PROGRESS ON ADAPTATION
Every country should communicate its adaptation plan – in its NDC, Long Term Strategy or National Adaptation Plan. G7 countries agreed this aim at their meeting in May. The huge gap between rhetoric and the amount of adaptation work actually happening needs to be closed.
AGREEMENT ON CLIMATE FINANCE
- to channel $100bn a year to developing countries from 2020 to 2025 – Germany and Canada should be presenting a roadmap to outline where this money will come from
- on a new higher target for climate finance post-2025
- for climate finance to be split more equally between adaptation and mitigation
- to channel private and development finance into climate funding, especially in vulnerable countries
AGREEMENT ON THE PARIS RULE BOOK
Some rules for the Paris Agreement have not been settled yet, and these need to be agreed at COP26, including:
- a process for providing loss and damage finance, especially to climate vulnerable countries. Loss and Damage should become a permanent item on the agendas of future COPs.
- support to developing countries through debt relief, simplifying access to climate finance and financing adaptation
- better transparency - so that climate action claims can be properly examined. This could be agreed by all countries, in return for the long-promised climate funding.
- carbon market rules – see this excellent article from Climate Home News, which explains the issues and how whatever is agreed here has the ability to bolster or sink efforts to reduce emissions
Although it looks like there will be no agreement on carbon pricing, it's expected that, as chair of the G7 in 2022, Germany will prioritise getting agreement on this. Carbon pricing puts a charge on goods reflecting the GHG emissions associated with the product. So carbon pricing could play a crucial in reducing ‘carbon leakage’, caused by countries minimising their GHG emissions by sourcing products from abroad.
THE LINKING OF CLIMATE ACTION WITH BIODIVERSITY PROTECTION
There will be a separate UNEP Biodiversity COP next year in China. However, as climate actions can benefit biodiversity and nature can be used to store carbon, there is lots of overlap between climate and biodiversity. So UNFCCC COP26 should ensure:
- alignment of the goals of COP26 with the goals of the forthcoming COP15 for biodiversity in Kunming, China.
- ensure decision-making by governments, business and international bodies ( G7, G20 etc.) protects biodiversity, as well as the climate.
- discussions should start on how to integrate Nature Based Solutions (NBS) into the Paris implementation strategy. Using nature to store carbon can make a big contribution, but ways to robustly measure it need to be developed.
INCLUSION
Vulnerable groups and those most affected by climate change need to be heard at COP26. Support should be given to partnerships of vulnerable countries, including low-lying states, island nations and less-developed economies, as well as indigenous people, women, small farmers and others. The NGOs are very concerned that there will not be good representation from these groups.
INITIATIVES TO SPEED UP CLIMATE ACTION
After Paris COP21, the One Planet programme of work led to the formation of around 50 initiatives to speed up climate action. Expect further initiatives to be announced during and after COP26 to address problem areas. We are likely to hear a lot about the following initiatives:
Race to Zero
Set up after the Paris agreement to get business, finance, banking, cities & regions and universities to halve their GHG emissions by 2030.
Race to Resilience
Set up after the Paris agreement to get business, finance, banking, cities & regions and universities to take action on adaptation.
Powering Past Coal Alliance
Set up after the Paris agreement by the UK and Canada, to phase out coal-fired power stations.
COP26 Energy Transition Council (ETC)
Set up in 2020, the ETC brings together governments and international institutions to support the green transition in developing countries.
Rapid Response Facility
Set up in 2021, to respond to countries' requests for help with energy transition.
Adaptation Action Coalition
Launched in January 2021, there are now 38 country members. The focus is on getting more adaptation action, particularly in the health, infrastructure and water sectors.
LEAF Coalition
Set up in 2021 to mobilise $1bn to support forest protection schemes. However, this scheme doesn’t address the drivers of deforestation.
LEADERSHIP
As president of COP26 and G7, the UK will find its domestic policy under the microscope, especially its forthcoming Net Zero strategy and policy on energy, housing, transport and nature. Of particular interest will be whether the UK gives the go-ahead the Cumbrian coal mine, the Cambo oil field and expansion of Heathrow and other airports.
Also, a recent report from think tank ODI looked at how much each developed country should contribute to the $100bn of climate finance to developing countries. It found that the UK was only contributing 48% of its fair share. According to the report, the UK should be contributing $5.9bn per year. So the widely publicised $11.6bn of climate finance over 5 years ($2.3bn per year) from the UK means this under-performance in climate finance is continuing.
Vulnerable groups and those most affected by climate change need to be heard at COP26. Support should be given to partnerships of vulnerable countries, including low-lying states, island nations and less-developed economies, as well as indigenous people, women, small farmers and others. The NGOs are very concerned that there will not be good representation from these groups.
INITIATIVES TO SPEED UP CLIMATE ACTION
After Paris COP21, the One Planet programme of work led to the formation of around 50 initiatives to speed up climate action. Expect further initiatives to be announced during and after COP26 to address problem areas. We are likely to hear a lot about the following initiatives:
Race to Zero
Set up after the Paris agreement to get business, finance, banking, cities & regions and universities to halve their GHG emissions by 2030.
Race to Resilience
Set up after the Paris agreement to get business, finance, banking, cities & regions and universities to take action on adaptation.
Powering Past Coal Alliance
Set up after the Paris agreement by the UK and Canada, to phase out coal-fired power stations.
COP26 Energy Transition Council (ETC)
Set up in 2020, the ETC brings together governments and international institutions to support the green transition in developing countries.
Rapid Response Facility
Set up in 2021, to respond to countries' requests for help with energy transition.
Adaptation Action Coalition
Launched in January 2021, there are now 38 country members. The focus is on getting more adaptation action, particularly in the health, infrastructure and water sectors.
LEAF Coalition
Set up in 2021 to mobilise $1bn to support forest protection schemes. However, this scheme doesn’t address the drivers of deforestation.
LEADERSHIP
As president of COP26 and G7, the UK will find its domestic policy under the microscope, especially its forthcoming Net Zero strategy and policy on energy, housing, transport and nature. Of particular interest will be whether the UK gives the go-ahead the Cumbrian coal mine, the Cambo oil field and expansion of Heathrow and other airports.
Also, a recent report from think tank ODI looked at how much each developed country should contribute to the $100bn of climate finance to developing countries. It found that the UK was only contributing 48% of its fair share. According to the report, the UK should be contributing $5.9bn per year. So the widely publicised $11.6bn of climate finance over 5 years ($2.3bn per year) from the UK means this under-performance in climate finance is continuing.
THE COP26 AGENDAS
See the the main conference COP26 Agenda. The Agendas for the Side Events and Exhibitions are HERE
THE BIG REPORTS
COP stands for the Conference of the Parties - the parties being the 197 countries which signed the Rio agreement. The main COP agenda will look at things from the perspective of countries and the global. Amongst the reports that will be discussed in the main conference are the following:
(links are given to reports and background documents that have already been published)
There will also be discussions about:
o implementation – item 3(b)
o technology transfer – item 9
o capacity building – item 10
SIDE EVENTS
The development of new financing vehicles, such as blended finance and pipelines of investable projects, is crucial. These should get investment money flowing into mitigation and adaptation projects in developing countries and into new technologies. Mark Carney has said the alignment of investment portfolios with the Paris goals will be very much on the COP26 agenda.
There will be some discussion of these in the main agenda. For example, item 8 will look at climate finance flows and long-term finance. However, detailed discussions of these and the extensive changes to business reporting systems will be discussed at length in the Side Events, in particular at The Investment COP on 7th and 8th Nov.
The general themes of the side events are:
Businesses, Think Tanks and NGOs were asked to put forward ideas for side events and exhibits by July. See the Side Events Schedule.
See the the main conference COP26 Agenda. The Agendas for the Side Events and Exhibitions are HERE
THE BIG REPORTS
COP stands for the Conference of the Parties - the parties being the 197 countries which signed the Rio agreement. The main COP agenda will look at things from the perspective of countries and the global. Amongst the reports that will be discussed in the main conference are the following:
(links are given to reports and background documents that have already been published)
- progress on emission reduction by countries – agenda items 4 and 5
- report on developing country mitigation and adaptation needs - item 8(b)(ii)
- long term finance – item 8(a)
- an assessment of climate finance flows – items 8(b)(iii)
- the climate funds (Green Climate Fund, Global Environment Facility) & the financial mechanism – items 8(c), 8(d) and 8(e)
- the Loss and Damage mechanism (the Warsaw mechanism) – item 7
There will also be discussions about:
- the biennial communications (the Synthesis of Biennial Reports) – item 8(f)
- support
o implementation – item 3(b)
o technology transfer – item 9
o capacity building – item 10
- least developed countries – item 11
- the positives and negatives of climate actions – item 12
- gender and climate change – item 13
- adaptation – item 17
- the workings of the various committees – adaptation (item 6) and the standing committee on finance (items 8(b)(i) and (iv))
SIDE EVENTS
The development of new financing vehicles, such as blended finance and pipelines of investable projects, is crucial. These should get investment money flowing into mitigation and adaptation projects in developing countries and into new technologies. Mark Carney has said the alignment of investment portfolios with the Paris goals will be very much on the COP26 agenda.
There will be some discussion of these in the main agenda. For example, item 8 will look at climate finance flows and long-term finance. However, detailed discussions of these and the extensive changes to business reporting systems will be discussed at length in the Side Events, in particular at The Investment COP on 7th and 8th Nov.
The general themes of the side events are:
- enhancing ambition
- promoting implementation
- providing support
Businesses, Think Tanks and NGOs were asked to put forward ideas for side events and exhibits by July. See the Side Events Schedule.
FURTHER INFORMATION